Ukraine’s defence strategy is masterful, and may yet deliver a victory

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/ukraine-s-defence-strategy-is-masterful-and-may-yet-deliver-a-victory-20220328-p5a8qf.html

Since late February, Western observers analysing the war in Ukraine have largely focussed on Russian strategy, as well as the performance of its military forces on the ground and in the air. That includes me. But like all wars, this is a two-sided and interactive human activity.

Russia has made many errors. But Ukraine has played an inferior hand well. It is a country that is smaller in size, population, economy, and military forces than its invader. Why has it, so far, been successful at defending itself against the military forces of a nuclear-armed superpower?

In short, Ukrainian strategic thinking has out-thought the Russian President and his advisors. What are the key elements of the Ukrainian strategy that have allowed this to happen? To understand the approach, we must first understand what political outcomes the Zelensky administration seeks from a war that was forced upon them.

Zelensky has described Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity as “beyond doubt” and his goal is “peace and restoration of normal life”. In a recent interview with The Economist, Zelensky also noted that “as for compromises that may risk the disintegration of the country, the ones which Putin proposes, or rather demands in the form of an ultimatum, we will never make them. Never.”

Flowing from these political objectives is the Ukrainian strategy to achieve these outcomes. This requires a little more analysis; the Ukrainians are hardly going to openly expose their strategy for defending their nation in the middle of a war. But there is sufficient information publicly available to describe the likely elements.

Pro-Ukraine Israelis gather in Habima Square, Tel Aviv to watch a simulcast of President Zelensky’s address to the Israeli Parliament, the Knesset.
Pro-Ukraine Israelis gather in Habima Square, Tel Aviv to watch a simulcast of President Zelensky’s address to the Israeli Parliament, the Knesset.CREDIT:GETTY

The first is the sustainment of a national approach to the war. Ukraine has treated the Russian invasion as an existential threat. It has mobilised all of its military, industrial, economic, information and diplomatic resources to defend itself.

The second element is the construction and ongoing development of international support. This has taken the form of diplomacy, multinational forums and a masterful global influence campaign that built support for Ukraine in many (but not all) nations around the world. It has been ably supported by hacktivists targeting Russian cyber and information warfare capabilities. International influence has also been reinforced through President Zelensky’s livestreamed addresses to multiple national parliaments, NATO forums and the US Congress. Surely, no national leader in history has been provided such a global platform in so many national legislatures to seek military and humanitarian aid for his nation.

A third element of Ukrainian strategy is to protect its people. This is the responsibility of all legitimate governments, but wars make this a very difficult proposition. Despite the challenges of Russia’s deliberate targeting of cities and their inhabitants, the Ukrainian government has sought to maintain basic services such as hospitals, firefighters and other foundations of safe societies. After all, without people, what is a nation? As Zelensky has said, “as long as people are still alive, we must continue to protect them. And this is the fundamental difference between the way the opposing sides in this war see the world.”

The final element of Ukrainian strategy is keeping a capable military in the field. The Ukrainians must continue to contest Russian military thrusts, on the ground, in the air and in cyberspace. President Zelensky may be a former actor and comedian, but he deeply appreciates the need to maintain his military forces as they fight off the Russians. And he understands that he needs Western military assistance to keep them fighting.

Each of these four pillars is vital to help Ukraine achieve its political outcomes from the war. However, understanding these four elements of Ukraine’s strategy allows us to ask one final question. In some respects, it is THE question. Can Ukraine win?

Eminent US scholar and strategist Eliot Cohen thinks so. He has recently written that “analysts and commentators have grudgingly declared that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been blocked, and that the war is stalemated. The more likely truth is that the Ukrainians are winning.”

Zelensky and his military clearly think so. They have fought the Russians to a standstill on the ground and in the air. They have gained the support of much of the world and received large amounts of humanitarian and military assistance.

The well-led Ukrainian military has even begun several counter-offensives in areas around Kyiv and in the south of the country. And the longer the war goes, the more difficult Putin’s domestic and economic position becomes. So, Ukraine can win, but it will require massive amounts of military, diplomatic, economic, and humanitarian aid to prevail.

Ultimately, however, both sides will need to compromise if there is to be a sustainable peace after the fighting ends. The difficult part now will be whether the Russian and Ukrainian leaders, and the negotiators that support them, can reach a political accommodation that results in such an outcome.