Indonesia militants adopt political tactics ahead of 2024 polls

 https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Indonesia-militants-adopt-political-tactics-ahead-of-2024-polls

KUALA LUMPUR -- Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), the al-Qaida-linked militant group in Indonesia, is working to infiltrate political parties to gain support for its effort to establish an Islamic state in the Muslim-majority country, analysts and one former militant say.

The approach is part of a change of tactics for the group, which has in the past carried out violent attacks. Indonesia is set to hold legislative, presidential and regional elections on Feb. 14 next year.

The polls will set the country's future political direction, as President Joko Widodo is nearing the end of his second and final term in office. He has presided over strong economic and infrastructure development, including starting construction on a new, $32 billion capital city, Nusantara, on Borneo island, which is scheduled for completion by 2045.

Whoever is elected in 2024 will determine whether Widodo's dream for the new capital and high economic growth is achieved. These are not key concerns for the militants, whose priority is to change the country's system of governance to reflect their interpretation of Islam.

JI hopes that by establishing a presence in political parties, they can gain influence over parliament and the executive branch of government, Islah Bahrawi, an expert on the prevention of radicalism, extremism and terrorism at Densus 88, told Nikkei Asia.

JI is attempting to "infiltrate and influence political parties to carry out their agenda of establishing a caliphate in Indonesia which upholds Shariah law," said Muhamad Taufiqurrohman, a senior researcher at the Center for Radicalism and Deradicalization Studies (PAKAR) in Jakarta.

"In doing so, they hope to change the trajectory of Indonesia ... to become an Islamic state," said Islah.

Where JI once saw armed attacks as part of its struggle, the group now thinks penetrating political organizations is a more effective way to achieve its goals. The militant group was responsible for some of Indonesia's deadliest terrorist attacks from 1999 to 2009, including the 2002 Bali bombings, the deadliest such attack in the country's history.

JI's change in tactics from "bullet to ballot" occurred following a series of police raids and arrests of dozens of members, including its leader, Para Wijayanto, in 2019, which weakened the group, said Islah.

Wijayanto said during police questioning that the group has "about 6,000 to 7,000 members" spread across government institutions and civil and religious organizations.

JI's attempts at political infiltration came to the fore when police arrested Farid Ahmad Okbah, founder of the Indonesian People's Dakwah Party (PDRI) in November 2021. He was a suspected member of JI's consultative council. A Jakarta court jailed him for three years for terrorist activities in December.

Sofyan Tsauri, a former member of al-Qaida Southeast Asia, told Nikkei Asia that JI's influence on politics is "not big."

"They are noisy, they can shape public opinion, they are militant ... but no, they don't have a huge influence," said Sofyan who was arrested in 2010 for procuring weapons for the local al-Qaida affiliate. He was released from prison in 2015 and now helps police with de-radicalization efforts.

PAKAR's Muhamad Taufiqurrohman said whichever political candidate is supported by JI is bound to lose, as the majority of Indonesian Muslims are moderates and do not like the militant group.

Meanwhile, JI's rival, Jemaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD), the Indonesian affiliate of Islamic State (IS), has made threats on social media, saying it would attack polling stations that are "within its reach," said Sofyan.

"I discovered this when monitoring several [militant] groups on Facebook. This is dangerous. (JAD) view democracy as a man-made law, a law from Satan. The security apparatus is already on alert," said Sofyan.

PAKAR's Muhamad Taufiqurrohman said monitoring of social media showed IS supporters in Indonesia, indicating they may attack officials, members of Islamic political parties or election participants. Those supporters "are thinking of carrying out attacks during the campaigning period ... and not just during polling day," said Taufiqurrohman.

A counterterrorism source told Nikkei Asia there were "indications" militant groups had made threats on social media as part of their propaganda, but have not alluded to carrying out actual attacks.